Gray Flannel Dwarf

10/29/2004

Going out on a limb…

Here are my predictions for 2004, with the assumptions that nothing funny takes place. It’s my opinion, though, that the Kerry GOTV team will motivate enough voters that such things won’t be an issue in most places. Call me an optimist.



Kerry: 279 Bush: 259


In the battleground states…
Colorado: Bush. In the Senate race, Salazar is doing well against Coors, but I think it’s the ballot referendum which is my indicator for Bush. That’s divided somewhat along party lines, and the most recent polls on that seem to indicate that support for it is faltering.

Florida: I think Kerry wins, based a lot on this Herald/Zogby poll, but also because I can’t imagine the same thing happening again… and because the fudge factor is going to go Kerry’s way, I think.

Iowa: Kerry, but too close to call. I think the fudge factor may again pull this one out, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go Bush.

Michigan: Bush. I just don’t see Kerry winning MI. It’s a jobs state, and Kerry has been polling well, but something about it rubs me funny… maybe it’s just the 12 visits that Bush has made there, to date.

Minnesota: Bush… Minnesota is still such an independent state, and most recent polling has Nader there at 5%, despite everything, so I think that will hurt Kerry.

New Hampshire: NH is more conservative than the rest of the Northeast, but, I also think they’re a little smarter than a lot of the country, too ;).

New Jersey: It will stay Kerry. I don’t really think this was much of a swing, but I am including it because some have. Kerry is currently up by 7% in the newest poll, but it was as high as 10% a week ago. This is only a “battleground” because at one point it was seen as Bush having a bit of a surprise lead.

Ohio: Kerry, but I don’t have any concrete reasons why I think so, other than the fact that Ohio has, for the most part this year, been pretty strong for Kerry, except for a couple of flips. This is also a jobs state, and I think that may hurt Bush, at least here.

Pennsylvania: Kerry. I don’t think this was ever close, to tell you the truth. People have been saying for months that it will be hard for Bush to win PA, and with all the new registrations going on in the Philly area, I think this will be too much for Bush.

West Virginia: Bush, but that still stymies me. It’s a jobs state, as well as a steel state, so it kind of surprises me that Bush would win there, but he’s doing well. No reason to think he wouldn’t continue this.

Wisconsin: Kerry, but another one too close to call, I think. It could go either way.

For what it’s worth, you can create your own test scenario courtesy the L.A. Times.


cswiii @ 4:55 pm

The haves and the have-nots

From NYT “Sharp Increase in Early Voting Alters Campaign”:


“It’s certainly altered our campaigning,” said Matthew Miller, Florida spokesman for the Kerry campaign, citing special “early voting rallies” both Mr. Kerry and Mr. Edwards have held. The rallies often end with offers of a free bus ride to the polling site.

William R. Scherer, a Fort Lauderdale lawyer working for the Republicans, said his party had no need for such stunts. “We don’t need to bus,” he said. “Most of our people have cars.”


cswiii @ 11:39 am

Judging a book by its cover

A while back I wrote this off-the-cuff observation based on the appearance of what looked to be old high-school era pictures of Yahiye Adam Gadahn.

Today, I ran across this apologetic via Drudge, written by Gadahn.

In the meantime, I had become obsessed with demonic Heavy Metal music, something the rest of my family (as I now realize, rightfully so) was not happy with. My entire life was focused on expanding my music collection. I eschewed personal cleanliness and let my room reach an unbelievable state of disarray. My relationship with my parents became strained, although only intermittently so. I am sorry even as I write this.

…don’t think I could’ve been more spot-on with that one, eh.

Strangely enough, this sounds little different from the “testamonials” I heard ad nauseum during my stint in Tennessee. Evangelicals, and indeed, fundamentalism, all sound the same, mattering not how they’re packaged.


cswiii @ 10:03 am