Gray Flannel Dwarf

1/20/2004

Gallup on Early Polls.

Interesting article, albeit this is probably pretty obvious to some…


The nature of these contests has changed over the years, of course, but the comparison of early national poll results with the eventual nomination outcome provides us with a track record of sorts in our attempt to answer the “prediction” question. And the answer is clear: there is no clear relationship between the candidate leading in Gallup’s national trial heat surveys among Democrats at the beginning of an election year and the eventual winner of the party’s nomination.

The most interesting thing about Iowa, I think, was the erosion of Gephardt’s support there. I was too young to remember all this, but Gephardt won Iowa in 1988. From what I’ve heard, the demographic has changed there so much, that the labor groups that supported him then — and this time around, to some degree — don’t exert the same pressure that they used to.

As tight as this year’s race is, it ought to be interesting. I’m wondering if Gephardt will throw his support to anyone. We’ll see.


cswiii @ 1:04 pm

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